This calculator finds the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times (
k
in a fixed interval of time or space when the mean number of events
(λ)
is known. This type of probability distribution is known as a Poisson distribution.
Calculation
Inputs
λ
:7.00
k
:4.00
Output
P (X=k)
:0.09
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk
Where:
X
is a random variable following a Poisson distribution (unitless)
k
is the number of times an event occurs (unitless)
λ
is the mean number of times an event occurs (unitless)
e
is Euler's constant (approximately 2.718)
!
is the factorial function
P(X=k)
is the probabilitymass function, the probability that an event will occur
k
times
Explanation
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times (
k
) in a fixed interval of time or space when the mean number of events (
λ
) is known. It applies to problems in which random events occur independently of each other at a known average rate.
A Poisson distribution can be represented visually as a graph of the probability mass function. A probability mass function is a function that describes a discrete probability distribution.
Poisson distributions of three random independent events, based on their λ values
The most probable number of events is represented by the peak of the distribution, called the mode. When
λ
is:
a non-integer, the mode is the closest integer smaller than
λ
an integer, there are two modes:
λ
and
λ−1
When
λ
is low, then the distribution is strongly rightly skewed. As
λ
increases, the distribution looks more balanced. In fact as
λ→∞
, Poisson distribution tends to a normal distribution.